Crypto Ch9: Project Analysis

Chapter 9. How to analyze a crypto project

9.1 Start with the problem, not the token

The first question is not “Will the token go up?” but:

• What problem does this project solve?

If that is unclear, everything else becomes unreliable.

9.2 Ask whether the problem really needs a blockchain

If a standard database and normal internet architecture solve the same problem better, the blockchain layer may be unnecessary or purely narrative.

This is one of the strongest filters against weak projects.

9.3 Identify the user

A project should be analyzed through the lens of its real users:

• Retail users
• Developers
• Institutions
• Traders
• Protocols integrating other protocols

9.4 Ask about the moat

If the idea works, why can’t it be copied?

Possible moats include:

• Network effects
• Liquidity depth
• Brand trust
• Developer ecosystem
• Distribution
• Compliance advantage
• Security track record

9.5 Ask whether the token is genuinely necessary

If the product can function just as well without the token, the token may simply be a financing wrapper rather than a core value-capture mechanism.

9.6 Look at evidence, not just narrative

Useful categories of evidence include:

• User activity
• Retention or repeat usage
• Revenue or fee generation
• Supply structure and unlock schedules
• Competitive position
• Team execution track record

Metrics do not answer every question, but they force discipline into the analysis.

9.7 Be careful with common weak arguments

Examples:

• “The sector is big, so this project will win”
• “The team is strong, so the token must be valuable”
• “The tech is impressive, so users will come”
• “The community is loud, so fundamentals must be strong”

9.8 A one-page project memo template

1. What does the project do?
2. What problem does it solve?
3. Why does this require a blockchain?
4. Who are the users?
5. What evidence of product usage exists?
6. What is the moat?
7. Is the token necessary?
8. What are the supply and unlock dynamics?
9. What are the main risks?

Key takeaway

Project analysis should begin with product and demand, then move to users, moat, competition, and token design. Story should never come before structure.

— Mar 28, 2026

Crypto Ch9: Project Analysis by Lu Meng is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at About.